Russian forces have gained momentum along the front lines in Ukraine, prompting Kyiv to reorganize into a defensive position, according to German political analyst Nico Lange, who serves as the chief of staff for Germany’s Minister of Defense. In a thread on X (formerly Twitter), Lange explained the significance of Russia’s recent advances in eastern Ukraine, where the 22-month-long war has been focused. The fighting has centered on the eastern and southern front lines, with Kyiv aiming to reclaim territory occupied by Russia since the war began in February 2022.
However, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has progressed more slowly than anticipated, and with winter approaching, experts suggest that conditions may favor Moscow. John Kirby, White House National Security Council coordinator, noted that U.S. intelligence indicates that as the ground freezes in late January and February, it could facilitate Russian forces’ movement.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in its Thursday assessment on the war in Ukraine that Kirby’s statements were “consistent” with its own observations.
According to Nico Lange’s analysis, Russian troops have concentrated a significant portion of their attacks in eastern and northeastern Ukraine. The ongoing battle for Avdiivka, an industrial village in Donetsk that has witnessed some of the most intense fighting in recent months, is considered a focal point of Moscow’s mission in the region.
“In addition to the ongoing major Russian attacks at Avdiivka, Russia is now making several smaller attempted advances,” stated Nico Lange on X. “Russia is thus regaining the initiative on the front in the northeast and east. The territorial gains achieved so far remain small.” Russian forces have gained
Lange also noted that on the southern front lines, Russia is primarily conducting airstrikes and drone attacks on Kyiv’s forces. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on Thursday that Russia launched a series of airstrikes targeting the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Moscow also carried out drone attacks on northern and western Ukrainian regions on Wednesday and Thursday, according to Ukrainian sources cited by the ISW, including strikes that targeted Kyiv.
“Ukraine went into defense mode,” Lange explained. “However, in this phase, the Ukrainian armed forces no longer seem to be concerned with unconditionally holding their positions but rather with delaying battles.”