The impact of Ukraine’s inaugural deployment of M39 missiles, provided by the United States , against two helicopter bases in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine under Russian occupation, probably inflicted more extensive damage than what was initially acknowledged by the Ukrainian defense ministry.
Ukraine initially reported that their October 17 attack, which utilized three M39 missiles, struck airfields near Berdyansk in southern Ukraine and Luhansk Oblast in the east, resulting in the destruction of nine Russian helicopters. However, a thorough analysis of commercial satellite imagery conducted by GeoConfirmed, an open-source intelligence practitioner on the social media platform previously known as Twitter, revealed that the M39 missile raid actually incapacitated 21 helicopters.
GeoConfirmed’s assessment was striking, with the observation that this might be the most significant blow to the Russian air force since the outset of the war.
A separate analysis carried out by the Ukrainian research team Frontelligence Insight corroborated GeoConfirmed’s findings, emphasizing the solid basis for their estimates, even if the number of affected helicopters slightly exceeded their initial public estimate. the United States
To ascertain the damage or destruction of a helicopter, these analysts scrutinized satellite imagery for scorch marks around the recent known locations of parked helicopters. They cross-referenced this overhead imagery with photographs and videos from Russian social media, in addition to searching for evidence of damaged and inoperable helicopters being removed from the airfields.
Certain observers have raised doubts about the accuracy of the analysts’ counts. Frontelligence Insight acknowledged the challenges in the assessment, particularly regarding the limitations of commercially available imagery. These images lack the necessary resolution to discern numerous small scorch marks around helicopters at the Berdyansk location. They also noted that the situation is more straightforward in the case of Luhansk airport, where higher-resolution imagery offers clearer visibility.